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Step 5: Set Priorities on Potential Problems
Completion requirements
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The next step is to evaluate the probability and seriousness of each potential problem. That is, figure out what the probability is that the problem will occur and then how seriously it will affect the success of your plan if it does occur. To rate probability and seriousness; use “H” for high, “M” for medium, and “L” for low.
In our example, Elizabeth felt that there was only a small chance that she would get bored and drop out (probability of the event occurring = L), but if she did, it would seriously jeopardise her plan (seriousness = H). Her boss would see her as a failure in something he considered very important (earning a college degree). She also thought that there was only a low probability that it would take her longer than 3 years to obtain a degree. But, if this did happen, she may still be eligible for promotion given evidence that she was almost through with her education. When she considered her family, however, it was clear that not only was there a high probability that night school would be very hard on her family, when it occurred, it would be very serious indeed.
Her analysis now looked like this:
