Step 6: Analyse Each Major Potential Problem

Next, you need to analyse your greatest potential problems by finding their likely causes and planning preventive and contingency actions. In solving problems, you act on causes. To prevent or prepare for potential problems, you look for likely causes. After you have identified the likely causes, ask “What can be done to reduce the probability that this event (or likely cause) will happen?” In other words, what preventative action can you include in your plans? You also must consider: “If the worst comes to pass and the problem does occur, what can I do now to reduce the seriousness of the consequences?” In other words, what contingency action can you include in your plans for the start?

For Elizabeth, the potential problem “Night school will be very hard on my family”, had a high probability of happening, and when it happens, it will be high in seriousness. Thus, she selected this problem for further analysis. She asked herself, her family and others whose opinions she respected: “Why would night school be so difficult for my family?”

In real life, she receives a long list of probable causes or reasons why night school might be difficult for her family. Those of you who have been through the night school experience know that there are several likely causes leading to family hardship. But to simplify our example, we have only listed three causes.

Here is an example of her analysis.

Now that we have identified the likely causes, the next step is to ask, “What can we do now to reduce the probability of the event (or likely cause) occurring?”  In our example, Elizabeth found there were several things she could do.  Again, there were many more preventive actions that Elizabeth discovered she could take, but these are a representative sample.

The next step is for Elizabeth to say, “Ok, the worst comes to pass, and the cause of the problem happens. What can I do now to reduce the seriousness of the event if in fact it happens?” She was able to create several contingency actions what could help lessen the impact of the likely causes if they did occur.
The last part of step 6 is to ask, “What’s going to trigger each major contingency action?” Often, we are the person who observes the cause occurring and act as our own trigger. At other times someone or something else must trigger the contingency action. For example: